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Predicting and Forecasting

January has always been an intellectually exciting month for me. My students are eager and thrilled with whatever subject I present for discussion. Perhaps being the first month of the year, which is associated with resolution and starting afresh, they are motivated with most things, including learning or improving their English.

In January 2018, one of the topics that interested them most was predicting and forecasting — two words which are often confused by many native and non-native English speakers.

For me, predicting is a subjective telling of the future based on intuition and personal judgement, which can be biased (sometimes it is entertaining or disconcerting). Whereas, forecasting is done by analysing the past. I predicted that my Aussie nephew would have a wedding in a tropical island where the weather forecast is favourable for outdoor ceremony, reception and party.

The Cambridge English dictionary defines ‘to predict’ (verb – /prɪˈdɪkt/) as “to say that an event or action will happen in the future, especially as a result of knowledge or experience: It’s still not possible to predict accurately the occurrence of earthquakes. [ + that ] Who could have predicted that within ten years he’d be in charge of the whole company? [ + to infinitive ] The hurricane is predicted to reach the coast tomorrow morning. [ + question word ] No one can predict when the disease will strike again” (see ''predict'' in the Cambridge Online Dictionary).

Mediums Craig and Jane Hamilton-Parker have made the following predictions for this year (read ''Predictions: Psychic and Astrology World Predictions for 2018''): “A trade embargo with North Korea will fail, the US will strike at railway line and bridge to disrupt imports. Massive Bitcoin fraud uncovered and thwarted that funds terrorism and war. Terrorists make an airborne chemical weapon gas attack by multiple drones on a European capital city.”

Would you like to try your predicting skill? Who will win the football/soccer World Cup in Russia in June? Who among the world’s celebrities will fall from grace?

The Cambridge English dictionary defines ‘forecast’ (UK /ˈfɔː.kɑːst/) (US /ˈfɔːr.kæst/) as a statement of “what is likely to happen in the future, especially in connection with a particular situation, or the expected weather conditions” (see ''forecast'' in the Cambridge Online Dictionary).

Examples:

  • The economic forecasts are gloomy.
  • According to the weather forecast, it’ll be sunny today.

“The global economy is set fair in 2018. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently upgraded its forecast for global growth to 3.7%, to reflect the return to health of manufacturing in most of the developed world and China (see The Guardian: ''Some joy for the business world in 2018: but quite a few fears too'' published in Dec. 2017).

If we take seriously the forecasts on environmental and climatic changes, we’ll be worried sick about the future of planet Earth and the well-being of our children and their offspring. As such, we shouldn’t be complacent and indolent when it comes to consuming wisely and less, recycling diligently, and supporting people and ideas that contribute to the sustainability of our global village. (from Being Intelligent Gifted - www.beingintelligentgifted.com)

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